An Explanation of the Model

Our game predictions are calculated using readily available statistics from college basketball games. We calculate an Offensive Rating (ORtg), Defensive (DRtg), and Pace for each Division I men's basketball team. By analyzing statistics from only their games against other Division I opponents, we can calculate these three metrics which can be used to predict future performance. We adjust these ratings based on the strength of opponents each team has faced to arrive at our final figures for each team.

Once we have this data for each team, we can project the outcomes of games between two Division I teams. By estimating the number of possessions in each game, we can use each team's ORtg and DRtg to calculate the expected points scored for them. We also factor in home court advantage by providing an adjustment based on each home team's record at their home gym over the past five seasons. Once we factor this last detail in, this leads us to our final score projection which can be turned into a projected Total and Spread for each game.

In order to find the best value for our users, we then compare our projections to those found at the DraftKings online Sportsbook. The difference between the DraftKings' total and our projected total a numerical representation of the betting value for the total in the game. If DraftKings sets a total at 145.5 and our model projects a final score totaling 155, there is an estimated 9.5 points of value on this play. The same logic is applied for spreads as well. If DraftKings has a team favored by 4.5 points (represented by -4.5) and our model has them favored by 6.5 points (or -6.5), we estimated 2 points of value on this play.

Previous Season Results

2023-2024 Season:

Overall: 3941-4071 (.492)

Spreads: 1996-2010 (.498)

Totals: 1945-2061 (.486)